Comments on Three Jews, Four Opinions: Will Your Grandchildren Be Reform?

Thanks OJoe. I just ordered a copy. I'll tak...

2010-11-10T15:03:55.293-08:00

Thanks OJoe. I just ordered a copy. I'll take a look.

First of all - great post! This is the first time ...

2010-11-10T15:03:52.861-08:00

First of all - great post! This is the first time I have seen this blog (I got here via Hirhurim) and I am impressed with the quality and tone.

The analysis is careful and interesting and seems to demonstrate that WYGBJ is out of sync with reality.

However, I agree with several other posters that the anecdotal reality seems to be very much in sync with WYGBJ.

I cannot explain the discrepancy but I think MO made some very good points with which I agree and which would seem to account for (at least) part of the discrepancy.

Theoretical analyses aside, however, I would like to provide your audience with some (admittedly anecdotal) information from my own experience.

One of my sons married a woman whose grandparents have 4 children. My daughter-in-law's mother (my machatenesta) has 11 children. Each of her 3 siblings has more children than she does!

I can testify that, to date, all these 45+ grandchildren are Orthodox. Many of them are married and have growing families of their own. I don't know how many great-grandchildren there are (from all 4 siblings) but my machtenesta alone has more than 20 grandchilren (and counting). Since the oldest great-grandchild is only 13, it is very safe to say all the great-grandchildren are Orthodox at this time.

This single example of exponential growth is occurring (more or less) in many similar Orthodox families. While Orthodox Jews always had slightly more children on average, this move towards very large families seems to be a recent phenomenon. I believe that the next NJPS will start to reflect this explosion in the Orthodox population and will begin to validate WYGBJ.

great post! The guy who broke down the situation i...

2010-11-10T15:03:52.471-08:00

great post! The guy who broke down the situation in Israeli oversimplified things ad absurdum. Even more than in the states, these essentially North American denominations are meaningless.

I expect that my family and children would answer ...

2010-11-10T15:03:52.138-08:00

I expect that my family and children would answer "just Jewish," while observing kashrus, shabbos, yomim tovim, etc.

Maybe there is a problem with CURRENT definitions, and not just previous / changing definitions.

I'm surprised that each column totals 100%, si...

2010-11-10T15:03:51.829-08:00

I'm surprised that each column totals 100%, since there is no row for "converted to another religion". Does this mean that for each of your four categories, less than 0.5% of the children raised in that tradition end up not identifying as "Jewish" at all? Or does this mean that those who ceased to call themselves Jewish were not included in these numbers?

See: http://goliath.ecnext.com/coms2/summary_0199...

2010-11-10T15:03:51.456-08:00

See:

http://goliath.ecnext.com/coms2/summary_0199-2174930_ITM

The analysis does not take into account that "...

2010-11-10T15:03:51.331-08:00

The analysis does not take into account that "orthodox" in 1970 is not the same as orthodox in 2008.

The 1970 orthodox included a huge number of persons affiliated with orthodoxy but not actually observant, while the 2000 survey does not. This accounts for the observed but not actual attrition rate. Thus this past rate is not a good predictor of the future.

A better indication is the increase from 1990 to 200, of almost 100 percent.

Good point. I could make several arguments as to ...

2010-11-10T15:03:50.601-08:00

Good point. I could make several arguments as to why I think Judaism is better than other religions, but I would certainly have to concede that these arguments might not be compelling to everyone.

However, Jews are raised with Jewish ideas and traditions and beliefs and rituals. We (hopefully) have a connection both with other Jews now and with Jews from long ago, including our ancestors. Being part of this people is special and important and meaningful. And one could not get that sense of belonging-ness and connectedness by simply choosing another religion. (This factor is absent with regard to music, sports, etc.)

Of course, other people with other religions also have that relationship with their religion. But Judaism is a religion, an ethnicity, and a people.

Who cares if our grandchildren are Jewish anyway? ...

2010-11-10T15:03:50.037-08:00

Who cares if our grandchildren are Jewish anyway? If Judaism's not true, what difference does it make? People are people.

lf, you just like it cuz there's numbers bein...

2010-11-10T15:03:49.859-08:00

lf,

you just like it cuz there's numbers being hit around like tennis balls.

Bruce,

Interesting... This isn't a good follow up from Diane's post. I'm more skeptical of Reform then Orthodoxy by a long shot now. ;)

I agree with littlefoxling. This post was very ver...

2010-11-10T15:03:49.513-08:00

I agree with littlefoxling. This post was very very well done.

"Thus, Reform Judaism is more successful than...

2010-11-10T15:03:48.976-08:00

"Thus, Reform Judaism is more successful than Conservative Judaism in keeping children within the denomination, and Conservative Judaism is more successful at this than Orthodoxy."

Yes, but what does this mean? Are they like a vibrant ecosystem in a great lake or are they more like the Dead Sea where most of the water ends up only to eventually evaporate to nothing? Perhaps the only reason Reform Judaism is so "successful" is because it's the last rung, requiring no real duties or responsibilites and even the most barely self-conscious Jew will just go along with the denomination in name.

If most people who change denominations go from more traditional to less then it would stand to reason that an investment in tradition is called for. This trickle-down demographics would be what's keeping the liberal groups from vanishing on their own.

Hey Mordy, what's up? Long time, no see.

Very interesting, but I can't help but think y...

2010-11-10T15:03:48.818-08:00

Very interesting, but I can't help but think you're missing several important points.

1) Your interpretation of the data ignores the very significant definitional shift in the meaning of the term "Orthodox" over the period polled. If you retroactively applied the 2001 definition of Orthodox to 1970 (shrinking it massively), you might actually see that exponential growth you say isn't evidenced.

2) Exponential growth by definition isn't impressive in the beginning--but it explodes rapidly once it hits its stride. This is especially important when the numbers started small in the first place. From 1970 to now is barely a generation and half; it's entirely possible that the next census will show the expected exponential effects. I know it's already visible on the streets, in the yeshivas, and even in the growth of products that cater to an exclusively Orthodox market. (And yes, I know about the empty shuls of dead American Orthodox communities of the past.)

3) I strongly believe you're misinterpreting the Orthodox attrition rate. I think that what the survey show as Orthodox attrition is actually evidence of my point #1: the changing definition of "Orthodox." Sure, lots of people who once called themselves Orthodox no longer do. But that's because the definition of "Orthodox" changed, not because they did. The attrition was in the masses of nominally Orthodox, the now nearly defunct category of people who affiliated Orthodox but were not particularly observant. No one I know, and I know gobs of Orthodox Jews, is seeing anything like 42% Orthodox attrition rate. That would 13 kids out of every 30-kid graduating class; that's nowhere near the reality I see on the ground, no matter how hushed up OTD kids are.

4) You overestimate the impact of skeptical knowledge. People are generally religious for social reasons, from the initial socialization into the religion to the community ties that keeps them in for the long haul. So long as the social environment is good, all the skeptical knowledge in the world won't shake most people out of their social comfort zone. Historically, Jews left observance at rates you're considering only when observance was uncomfortable, the source of poverty and limits. Today in America, Jewish observance is marked more by materialism than poverty, no one is losing their job over Shabbos, and observant Jews can be basically anything they want to. Economics would have more effect on attrition rates than all the evolution websites on the Internet.

I won't defend WYGBJ, but your counterarguments have some serious deficiencies.

Rejewvenator - I agree that it is not the cause (I...

2010-11-10T15:03:48.489-08:00

Rejewvenator - I agree that it is not the cause (I think there are many causes), but I think the internet will increase at least one factor. What do you think the causes are?

David - ironically, yes. I think Judaism functions an interconnected system, and that strengthening any aspect of Judaism ends up strengthening all aspects.